Opinion Polls

I have refrained from commenting on the Beaufort opinion poll for the Western Mail and the recall poll for ITV. The latter I am very sceptical about: 750 people were 'recalled', meaning that less than 500 probably gave a definite party view. I think that is a dangerously low number for a poll in Wales.

The Western Mail poll had these figures for the constituency seats:

Labour 36

Plaid 26

Con 19

LD 13



Now, interestingly, here is what the final opinion poll recorded in 2003*:

Labour: 39

Plaid 26

Con 16

LD 13



And here was the final result:

Lab 40

Plaid 21.2

Con 19.9

LD 14.1



In other words, the final opinion poll in 2003 over-stated the Plaid figure significantly, under-stated the Conservative figure significantly, and mildly understated Labour and the LDs. I won't comment on the Labour vote, because people would expect me to boost us. But I suspect myself that as in 2003, the Plaid figure has been over-stated and the Conservative figure is under-stated in the Western Mail poll.

So, it's all to play for and every vote counts.

*Recorded in Richard Wyn Jones and Roger Scully, 'Coming home to Labour? The 2003 Welsh Assembly Election', Institute of Welsh Politics, paper presented to the 203 Annual Conference of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties specialist group of the Political Studies Association in Cardiff, 12-14 September 2003.